Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence confirmed that the two sides have begun negotiating a multi-year contract extension. Lawrence made the admission while speaking with reporters during this week's voluntary offseason practices. The Jaguars are going to make Lawrence the next $250 million quarterback.
"There's definitely been some conversations as far as where that's at now," Lawrence told reporters, via team transcript. "It's not really my focus, I'd love to obviously be a Jag for as long as possible."
The Jaguars will soon execute the fifth-year option on Lawrence's rookie contract. The deadline for that inevitable decision is May 2. Once triggered, Lawrence will remain under contract through 2025 at a fully guaranteed salary of $25.6 million for that season. It qualifies as a massive bargain for the Jaguars given current-day quarterback price tags. Lawrence will also become eligible to sign an extension.
It's worth acknowledging Lawrence experienced a down season in 2023 by his standards. Having dealt with several injuries throughout the campaign, Lawrence threw for fewer yards and touchdowns, and more interceptions compared to his breakout 2022 season. The Jaguars failed to defend their AFC South division title, dropped five of their final six contests, and missed the postseason altogether.
It shouldn't have a large impact on contract negotiations. Lawrence is a bonafide franchise quarterback. Finding better is damn near impossible. What's worth considering is how another down campaign could impact the job security of head coach Doug Pederson and general manager Trent Baalke. Even if the Jaguars go through a regime change, the next decision-makers would be thrilled to inherit a quarterback like Lawrence.
A new standard of quarterback contracts has been set by Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and Jalen Hurts. All four quarterbacks signed five-year extensions between April and September of last year. Jackson and Hurts signed their contracts 10 days apart.
Burrow, who signed his extension after his aforementioned contenders in early September, became the cream of that crop, inking a five-year extension worth $275 million. The Bengals made Burrow the highest-paid quarterback on an annual basis at $55 million. Herbert ($52.5 million), Jackson ($52 million), and Hurts ($51 million) fell slightly short of matching Burrow, although they all surpassed $50 million yearly, and $250 million total value, which will serve as the floor for Lawrence’s negotiation.
I don't expect Lawrence to surpass Burrow's agreement. Lawrence hasn't taken his team to a Super Bowl like Burrow has, nor has he legitimately contended for MVP honors like Burrow has. Comparing Lawrence's career to Herbert's feels fair, given that both are franchise quarterbacks that haven't yet reached their performance ceiling.
The Jaguars could sign Lawrence to a five-year extension worth $265 million with more than $220 million in guarantees. Lawrence would earn $53 million annually via such a proposal, slightly edging out what Herbert, Hurts, and Jackson signed for. Lawrence would benefit from inflation, and simply being the next quarterback to sign a contract. That's how this typically works.
The Jaguars are entering a critical 2024 campaign. Another disappointment could bring Pederson's and Baalke's job security into question. One thing that won't change regardless of the outcome is Lawrence's standing with the franchise. Owner Shad Khan should soon approve a long-term extension that pays Lawrence more than $260 million.
