Do Texans Have A CJ Stroud Problem?

The Houston Texans were eliminated from the postseason on Sunday. They were defeated 28-16 by the New England Patriots for a spot in the AFC Championship Game. The ineffective play of Texans starting quarterback C.J. Stroud was largely to blame.

Stroud completed just 42.6% of his passing attempts, going 20-of-47. He threw for 212 yards, one touchdown, and four first-half interceptions, including a pick-six. The Texans are dealing with a long-term Stroud problem.

Stroud was chaotic, inaccurate, and erratic. The former Ohio State standout played poorly throughout the playoffs. He committed three turnovers in the wild-card win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, and he was fortunate to lose just two of his five credited fumbles.

Stroud has been trending in the wrong direction for two consecutive seasons. The No. 2 overall selection in the 2023 NFL Draft enjoyed one of the best debut rookie campaigns we've ever witnessed. It's been a downward trajectory since. Stroud has thrown fewer touchdown passes each year, going from 23 as a rookie to 19 this past campaign. His passing yardage total has regressed from 4,108 as a rookie to 3,727 as a sophomore and 3,041 this season. After throwing five interceptions as the Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, Stroud averaged 10 INTs across 2024-25.

Stroud thrived under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik as a rookie. Moving into his sophomore season, Slowik put more responsibility on Stroud's plate. He struggled to grow and acclimate. 

Stroud possessed increased command over the offense in 2024. He had authority at the line of scrimmage and was asked to set protections and make line checks. Stroud was asked to organize his teammates and put the offense in better positions by analyzing the defense. These responsibilities were a departure from his rookie season.

Stroud failed to make the progress the Texans naturally assumed he'd make as a sophomore. The added responsibility led to processing and decision-making issues. Head coach DeMeco Ryans parted ways with Slowik at the conclusion of the season. Ryans hired Los Angeles Rams passing game coordinator and tight ends coach Nick Caley to be Stroud's new OC.

Stroud struggled throughout the early portion of 2025 under Caley. The Texans started 0-3 and were averaging 12.6 points per game. Stroud averaged under 200 passing yards and threw just two touchdowns during that early-season stretch.

Things obviously picked up. The Texans concluded the regular season on a six-game win streak, though they often leaned on Ryans' elite defense. Nonetheless, Stroud clearly improved and looked more comfortable in Caley's offense as the year progressed. Until the playoffs started, that is.

General manager Nick Caserio isn't totally blameless. He has struggled to field a competent offensive line throughout the majority of Stroud's career, and things were shuffled up front this season with Tytus Howard moving from tackle to guard to make room for rookie Aireontae Ersery. The Texans finished 30th in pass-block win-rate this year, according to ESPN Stats & Info. It's worth noting the Texans only gave up 31 sacks in 17 games, though.

The Texans will certainly trigger Stroud's fifth-year contract option this offseason. He'll become eligible for a contract extension this summer. With 11 starting quarterbacks around the NFL averaging between $50 and $60 million per season, Stroud's representation will undeniably be anxious to negotiate an extension.

The Texans possess control over Stroud's rookie contract for two more seasons. Caserio should do his best to delay deciding Stroud's long-term future in Houston for as long as possible, as Stroud, so far, has failed to progress into the quarterback he once looked assured to become.