Every spring, the NFL Scouting Combine becomes the epicenter of attention for NFL prospects, fans, and front offices. For many players, the invitation to work out and meet with teams in Indianapolis is a golden opportunity to raise their draft stock. But for some top-tier prospects, skipping the NFL Combine might actually be the smartest move.
The NFL Combine is primarily designed to showcase raw athleticism. From the 40-yard dash to the bench press, the emphasis is on numbers. Star players, however, already have full seasons of game film—arguably the best indicator of future success. For those who have already proven themselves on the field, the NFL Combine offers limited upside and far too much risk.
Take Oregon wide receiver Tez Johnson, for example. At the NFL Combine, Johnson measured in at 5-foot-9 and 154 pounds. His value was always going to be tied to speed and quickness—traits that helped him tally more than 2,000 receiving yards and 20 touchdowns over the past two seasons.
Despite his in-game production and a blazing 6.65-second three-cone drill (the best among wide receivers), many project Johnson as a day-three pick. Why? Because of his 4.51-second 40-yard dash. That number is what seemingly everyone is talking about, so much so that Johnson addressed it at Oregon’s Pro Day.
“You can watch my tape and see no one can catch me,” Johnson said. “The 40 don’t define you as a football player. It just shows that you can run a fast time.”
Johnson’s right. If teams evaluated only his film and stats, they would likely be intrigued by his ability to create yards after the catch and by his value as a punt returner. But by attending the NFL Combine, Johnson gave scouts raw data, and one disappointing number may have been enough to knock him out of day two.
While most invitees still attend the NFL Combine for team meetings, top prospects like Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter have opted for a different route: their school’s Pro Day. Pro Days not only offer players more time to prepare after the college season and the ability to work out in the comfort of their own facilities, but they also allow athletes to design a showcase that highlights football ability rather than timed events.
The strategy paid off for both players. Sanders showed off his accuracy and arm strength, throwing across the field, while Hunter ran the routes and caught passes from his teammate without gloves on, demonstrating his hands and explosiveness. Who knows what their 40 times might have been at the NFL Combine, but their elite on-field performances during the season and on Pro Day speak for themselves.
The case studies of Johnson, Sanders, and Hunter make a compelling argument against the NFL Combine for top-tier prospects, but skipping the showcase isn’t for everyone. Late-round hopefuls, small-school standouts, and injured players with limited tape still need that stage to prove they belong.
In the end, the NFL Combine is a tool. It’s not the ultimate test of a player’s potential, but one piece of a much larger puzzle. For some, it’s a vital opportunity to shine. For others, it’s a stage best left alone.
