Proving to be one of the best players in college football every year weighs heavily on many college athletes. Their team's success, the hard work they put in, and the attention of NFL teams constantly put pressure on them to go above and beyond. While many will fall to the wayside and have disappointing seasons, not all are created equal.
IS LUTHER HIM BECAUSE FOLKS ARE ASKING#MIZ | #STP pic.twitter.com/KeAGhUsI9z
— Mizzou Football (@MizzouFootball) November 23, 2024
Luther Burden III is one of the most electric athletes in college football and the expectations for 2024 were high, coming off a 1,200-yard and nine-touchdown year a season ago. This year wasn’t what anyone had hoped to see from the soon-to-be 21-year-old or the Missouri football program. They sit at 8-3, with all three losses coming in the SEC. They haven’t lived up to expectations. It happens, but for Burden, it feels like he’s been “outta sight, outta mind” for large portions of this season.
In 2023, Burden had eight games of 90 or more yards, averaging 14.1 yards per catch and totaling 724 yards after the catch. Fast forward to this season with one final regular season game, and Burden has 660 yards, averaging 11.1 yards per catch with only 375 yards after the catch. The Missouri offense hasn’t been the same, and the numbers reflect that. However, is Burden himself contributing to the down year?
During his freshman season at Missouri, Burden saw 85% of his snaps come from a wide alignment, and they flipped the script for his sophomore year, coming in with about 82% of his snaps from the slot. There was speculation that he could be used anywhere on the field in his junior year, given his experience playing outside and in the slot in two seasons. That didn’t happen. Missouri increased his slot usage to around 85% and saw his role decrease in the offense.
Through 11 games in 2023, Burden was on the field for 342 passing snaps. This season through 11 games, he’s been on the field for 243 passing snaps. While his route involvement has increased, his target share has also declined. There are a few things I noticed while watching his tape this year.
Scheming up touches for Burden is all good, and they need to use his skill set, but it’s far too obvious at times. Brady Cook never even checks before he throws this to Burden. They set him up to get drilled on this play for no reason.
Between decoy routes and obvious schemed-up plays to Burden, the quality volume of targets hasn’t been then as high this season. I also think the usage of Burden in this offense has stunted his growth from nuance and technique through the stem standpoint. He rarely sees press or has to move defenders with stem manipulation while in the slot. He’s flashed these abilities throughout his career, but enforcing them with continued use would help translate to all areas of his game and the next level.
At a listed 5-foot-11 and 208 pounds, Burden isn’t the biggest guy on the field, and it would make sense if he wasn’t the most impactful blocker. However, his effort level to block isn’t a consistent or common theme. Effort concerns throughout his game have been something I’ve noted over the past few seasons and could contribute to his in-game snaps going down as a result. We see it frequently with college athletes; their efforts can drop dramatically when they know the ball isn’t coming their way. He’s still a developing route-runner at this point as well, and when he isn’t running a route full speed, he allows defenders to stick along too easily. We’ve seen what it looks like when he’s giving it his all, and it’s unique.
This is one of my favorite reps this season because he does the little things without creating separation. He’s running a fade from the left slot and faces soft press from the defender. Burden implements a quick stutter/jab release, buying himself the time to stack the defender and get vertical. His tracking is top-tier, and he does a great job understanding the situation with the ball in the air. He knows the defender isn’t looking for the ball or where he is on the field, and Burden keenly realizes that he can stop after the catch and cut underneath for the touchdown because the defender is only worried about him. He secures the catch and decelerates on a dime to get underneath and score. Excellent awareness and attention to detail on this rep.
We know the threat he is with the ball in his hands, and he’s put several highlight-reel plays on tape this year in that regard, but these plays where he has to rely on awareness and football IQ showcase the level of player he could be. There’s more growth needed in route-running, effort, and stem manipulation for him to take the next step as a receiver, but it’s hard to argue with the results sometimes.
It’s hard to ignore the sheer talent Burden possesses, and while he’ll likely be a first-round pick come April, he’s fallen down the list of wide receivers for me this year. If he lands with the right offensive mind (head coach or offensive coordinator), the development will continue, and they’ll do a much better job of scheming plays for him where it isn’t always apparent. I think he’s largely been the same player during his time at Missouri, playing the game with reactionary athleticism and his natural football IQ, but he could be much more.
Where do you think he’ll land in the NFL, and where does he currently sit for you among college football’s best receivers?
