What Are Reasonable Expectations For Drake Maye's 1st Start?

New England Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo announced the decision to start rookie quarterback Drake Maye against the Houston Texans on Sunday. Maye will replace veteran pivot Jacoby Brissett. The No. 3 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft will make his first career start versus a tough Texans defense. It's a questionable decision and the Patriots are not putting their rookie signal-caller in a particularly good position.

It was always a matter of when, not if, Maye would replace Brissett as the starter. Signed as a veteran bridge-gap, Brissett has failed to keep the Patriots competitive. They sit at a lifeless 1-4 following four consecutive defeats and are averaging second-worst results in points (12.4) and yards (250.8) per contest.

You do wonder if Mayo is caving to external pressure, though. An inpatient fan base is understandably anxious to see their rookie quarterback replace an incumbent starter. When the Patriots analyzed their schedule at the beginning of the season, we doubt they identified the DeMeco Ryans-coached Texans as the ideal game for Maye to make his first start.

The 4-1 Texans are in second place in the AFC and fresh off an impressive victory over the Buffalo Bills. Ryans’ defense ranks fourth in total yards allowed (274.2) and third in passing yards (154) allowed per outing. They're also tied for eighth in quarterback sacks (15) and feature the reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year in Will Anderson Jr.

Asking Maye to make his debut against these Texans behind this offensive line feels borderline negligible. Patriots quarterbacks have been sacked on 19 occasions, second-most in the league, with just Deshaun Watson and Cleveland Browns in front of them. The Patriots have several offensive linemen on IR, having already started 12 different linemen in five games. Brissett was under pressure on 48.3% of his dropbacks, according to Next Gen Stats. Maye will be tasked with using his raw athleticism to improvise.

Off-script playmaking and pocket maneuverability could help Maye offset how badly the offensive line is outmatched versus the Texans' defensive line. On the other hand, a tendency to hold onto the football and below-average pocket presence could get Maye into trouble. Questionable decision-making was occasionally displayed at North Carolina, and Houston will believe in their ability to force ill-advised throws.

Maye saw his first action of the campaign in mop-up duty in a blowout defeat to the New York Jets in Week 3. Patriots offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt offered insight into how he may utilize Maye on Sunday, with 15 of his 16 snaps in that game occurring in shotgun formation. It was an attempt to protect his inexperienced quarterback from a makeshift offensive line, while also encouraging him to use his athleticism to extend the pocket. He was still sacked twice, completing 4-of-8 passes for 22 yards, and was lucky to avoid an interception.

Maye featured in all three Patriots preseason games. The former Tar Heels standout completed 21-of-34 passing attempts (61.7% completion percentage) for 192 yards, one touchdown, and zero interceptions. The dual-threat scrambler added 32 rushing yards and one additional score to his offensive totals. Maye also fumbled three times, but the Patriots recovered all of those miscues.

Maye spent training camp, the exhibition, and one month of regular-season preparation waiting for this moment. The sky remains his limit as he’s capable of adding a much-needed playmaking layer to a stale offense, but it's fair to question whether the Texans are the appropriate opponent to make this decision against. Maye will attempt to survive the moment while building confidence for future opportunities.