Predicting Caleb Williams' 2024 Stats

Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams dazzled in Week 2 of the preseason. The No. 1 overall pick completed 6-of-13 passing attempts for 75 yards, including a highlight-reel 45-yard completion that displayed his off-script playmaking ability. Williams has all the tools to post terrific statistics this season.

The Bears have spent the offseason investing in Williams' success. They completely revamped their wide receiver room by trading for Keenan Allen and drafting Rome Odunze with their other first-round pick. General manager Ryan Poles also signed top wideout D.J. Moore to a four-year extension worth $110 million. The Bears have one of the top receiving groups in the entire NFL as a result.

Other improvements have been made as well. The running back spot was upgraded by signing D'Andre Swift in free agency, a dual-threat playmaker that will help Williams. Gerald Everett was signed at tight end to support Cole Kmet. The offensive line received positive reinforcements via the arrivals of Ryan Bates and Coleman Shelton.

Analyzing new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron and his tendencies helps figure out realistic projections for Williams’ rookie season. As the OC of the Seattle Seahawks last year, Waldron’s offense ranked 14th in passing (and 12th in 2022). The Seahawks have a much more experienced quarterback in Geno Smith, who ranked 16th in passing yards (3,624) and 17th in touchdowns (20). Smith missed two games due to injury, which impacted his final numbers.

Like the Bears, the Seahawks had three high-level receivers last season: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Williams is arguably a naturally more talented QB than Smithis, but the latter’s veteran poise helps make up the difference. Expecting similar passing-game numbers from the Bears is fair.

If Williams completes 329-of-510 passes, he'd finish his rookie campaign with a 64.5% completion percentage. Smith had a completion percentage of 64.7% last season. If Chicago's franchise signal-caller attempts 527 passes, that would be a per-game average of 30, which is right around what Waldron's quarterbacks attempted the previous two seasons (33.2 and 33.6), with slightly fewer attempts per game given Williams' inexperience.

If Williams averages roughly 7.3 yards per attempt, he’d throw for approximately 3,723 yards, which would have been the 15th-best mark in the league last season while also setting a Bears single-season rookie franchise record. 

The Bears are the only team in NFL history without a 4,000-yard passer, so such numbers would flirt with setting their all-time single-season record. A gunslinging Williams could also throw for about 25 touchdowns (tied for 10th last season) and 14 interceptions based on these numbers and Waldron’s recent history.

Last season, the top two overall quarterbacks endured vastly different rookie seasons. C.J. Stroud threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns, and Bryce Young managed just 2,877 yards and 11 touchdowns. Williams may not match Stroud’s historically impressive rookie season, but it should be wildly better than what Young put forth.

Waldron's latest history indicates the Bears will field somewhere between the 12th and 14th best passing offense in the league. Williams' passing game numbers should be right around the league average or better. Expect Williams' passing yardage and touchdown totals to threaten a top-10 finish among all quarterbacks.