Will 2024 QB Draft Class Be Different Than 2021? (NFL Draft 2024)
NFL Draft 2024

Will 2024 QB Draft Class Be Different Than 2021?

Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
author image

A trade that sent former New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson to the Denver Broncos on Monday represented a sense of finality for the 2021 NFL Draft class of quarterbacks. With Wilson no longer in East Rutherford, four of the five teams who selected signal-callers with top-15 picks have officially moved on after just three completed seasons. Life comes at you fast in the we-demand-immediate-results NFL.

It's a merciless reminder of the buyer's beware risk attached to drafting a first-round quarterback on the precipice of Thursday's 2024 NFL Draft, one that could also feature five first-round signal-callers. Hope always springs eternal this time of year, but it's fair to enter Thursday with a positive outlook. The 2024 class of quarterbacks should enjoy a different outcome than the grim fate the 2021 group has now met.

Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall selection in 2021, is companionless as that draft's lone success story at quarterback. Lawrence appears on the brink of signing a lucrative contract extension. Wilson, the aforementioned second pick, never met the Jets' expectations before being traded to Denver. Unlike the rest, Trey Lance, who was the third overall selection, didn't even make it to a third season in San Francisco despite the 49ers parting with significant draft capital to acquire him.

Justin Fields and Mac Jones also met their fate earlier this offseason. Jones was traded to Jacksonville to serve as Lawrence’s backup. The Bears dealt Fields, who appears to have the best chance among his peers to rehabilitate his dwindling career, to Pittsburgh. In true cutthroat fashion, the Bears will draft his replacement, Caleb Williams at No. 1 overall. The Patriots may also draft Jones’ replacement at No. 3. The carousel keeps spinning.

Williams is the best quarterback prospect since Lawrence. Williams' presence as the class’ cream-of-the-crop should get the 2024 group of quarterback draftees off to a desired start. The Bears are also better prepared to draft a quarterback than they were when they selected Fields, an underrated significance that often helps determine outcomes.

Jayden Daniels is projected to be the No. 2 overall pick. Daniels is arguably among college football's most improved players ever, going from failed quarterback at Arizona State to Heisman winner at LSU in 2023. Daniels' two-year progression at LSU, paired with some of his elite physical traits, makes him a prospect worth betting on.  I’d have ranked him ahead of the BYU version of Wilson, who had just one breakout season that gave me pause.

Drake Maye entered the 2023 season in contention to be the first quarterback drafted. He regressed from his electric 2022 campaign, but the sample size on Maye is significantly larger than it was on Lance, who attempted just 318 passes at North Dakota State. By comparison, Maye attempted nearly three times that amount (952). Maye also possesses the dual-threat skills as an off-script passer and rusher that teams covet in today’s quarterback.

The one comparison that concerns me is J.J. McCarthy and Jones. McCarthy, like Jones, was surrounded by elite teammates at a National Championship winning program. McCarthy didn't carry Michigan, just like Jones didn't carry Alabama, not that that’s a prerequisite. But when scouting McCarthy's tape, it's difficult to identify truly elite physical traits. That similar lack of legitimate difference-making abilities doomed Jones in New England. McCarthy has experienced a borderline scary rise up the pre-draft ranks.

Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix are wild cards as potential first-round picks. The league-wide consensus is that neither player is a top-32 pure overall talent, but positional value may catapult them there. Something similar happened for Kenny Pickett in 2022, who has already been traded. Perhaps the shared failed experiments of the 2021 group and Pickett in 2022 should serve as a warning label.

Quarterbacks could be selected with picks 1-4 on Thursday. All of them possess the potential to develop into franchise signal-callers, but as the 2021 class has reminded us all offseason long, there's significant risk involved, too. There's legitimate evidence to suggest this year's quarterback prospects will outperform 2021, but only time will reveal the outcomes.



Loading...
Privacy Policy

© Copyright 2025 The Draft Network