The Jacksonville Jaguars have a sizable decision to make regarding the future of free-agent-to-be wide receiver Calvin Ridley. If the Jaguars re-sign Ridley this offseason before he officially hits free agency, the 2024 third-round pick they currently owe the Atlanta Falcons will convert to a second-rounder. Taking this into consideration, the Jaguars shouldn't re-sign Ridley.
Jaguars general manager Trent Baalke initially parted with a conditional 2024 fourth-round selection when acquiring Ridley from the Falcons. The pick has already been upgraded to a third-rounder based on the statistical incentives Ridley met during the season. Ridley's play throughout 2023 does not warrant the Jaguars parting with a top-50 selection, specifically the 48th overall pick Jacksonville currently owns.
One of the more disappointing aspects of Jacksonville's offense this season was Ridley's inconsistency. He was acquired to be Trevor Lawrence's dominant go-to target in an explosive offense. None of that came to fruition. Ridley was extremely inconsistent, finishing with 76 catches for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns. Ridley was held to 40 or fewer receiving yards in nine of 17 appearances as the Jaguars crawled to a 9-8 record and end-of-season collapse that resulted in them missing the postseason.
Baalke has already publicly proclaimed his intended wish to re-sign Ridley. Perhaps Baalke believes other factors led to his up-and-down season. Lawrence battled through multiple injuries that resulted in his playing tailing off at times. Jacksonville's offense was just around league average, scoring a 13th-ranked 22.2 points per game, falling short of their expectations.
Head coach Doug Pederson has responded by making changes to his coaching staff. Most notably on offense, passing game coordinator Nick Holz departed for an opportunity to become the Tennessee Titans' offensive coordinator. Pederson likely hopes that structural changes will lead to a more effective Lawrence, and in turn, better overall offensive performances in 2024.
If the Jaguars re-sign Ridley and agree to pay the second-round price tag attached to that decision, that will be the line of thinking they've followed. It would be a dangerous projection, however. It's still Pederson's offense with the same offensive coordinator (press Taylor) and the same quarterback (Lawrence) Ridley failed to showcase week-to-week chemistry with.
Age is another factor. Ridley will turn 30 during the 2024 season. His 2023 campaign may lower his asking price, but surely the former first-rounder is still looking for a multi-year extension (into his mid-30s) that would pay him handsomely. Baalke must weigh risk versus reward.
The 2024 NFL Draft offers the Jaguars a prime opportunity to replace Ridley. Receivers like Brian Thomas Jr. could garner consideration with the 17th overall selection. If Baalke doesn't re-sign Ridley and holds onto the 48th pick, perhaps a run-after-catch threat like Malachi Corley or Xavier Legette in the second round would be a better fit alongside Lawrence. The cash-strapped Jaguars who may soon pay Lawrence a $300 million extension would benefit greatly from drafting a star receiver that's on a four-year cost-controlled contract.
Ridley did not meet the performance ceiling the Jaguars envisioned he'd reach when they acquired him from the Falcons. The high-risk, high-reward move proved to be rather insignificant. Baalke should admit the inevitable. The Jaguars shouldn't pay a premium to re-sign Ridley.
