The 2023 fantasy football season just ended, but we’re already looking ahead to 2024. A crazy offseason of player movement and drafting lies ahead, but it’s never too early to begin prepping for a future fantasy championship. It’s also crucial to remember how we felt when the season ended, as our memories can get cloudy as the offseason wears on.
Things to know before reading: This mock is based on a 12-team, single-QB, half-PPR league with the following starting positions: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, FLEX, K, DST. This draft will simulate what I would do if I were drafting for each of these 12 teams. After the first round, this is not a big board—players will be drafted based on team needs and value, not just overall ranking. All scoring mentioned below is based on half-PPR and all per-game averages carry a seven-games-played minimum unless otherwise noted.
Not that that’s out of the way, it’s time to dive into my two-round 2024 Fantasy Football Mock Draft:
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Round 1
1.1 Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers
What more is there to say about Christian McCaffrey at this point? He was the undisputed best fantasy football player in 2023, returns to the same team and offense, and will be just 28 years old when the 2024 season begins. I know it’s en vogue to take a wide receiver 1.1 now, but I advocated for McCaffrey as the top pick last year and will do so again.
McCaffrey averaged 22.36 fantasy points per game and scored at least 11.1 points every week. He scored 20 or more fantasy points in 10 of his 16 games. He’s the best running back in football and the best player with which to start a fantasy football team.
1.2 Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins
While his run at Calvin Johnson’s single-season receiving record will likely fall short, Tyreek Hill still put together a phenomenal season. A lackluster Week 17 performance dipped his season average below 20 fantasy points per game, but 19.95 was still the best average output of any (non-quarterback) player not named McCaffrey in 2023.
What gives Hill the nod over the other top receivers for this spot is the combination of Hill’s boom upside and known quarterback situation. Hill had just three games with fewer than 10.6 fantasy points while having nine 20-plus-point performances on his résumé. Tua Tagovailoa is locked in place for Miami next season, which gives him a leg up on Justin Jefferson and the Vikings’ looming offseason quarterback decision.
1.3 CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb was the only other wide receiver to surpass the 19 fantasy points per game threshold in 2023. A solid but inconsistent start gave way to a championship-winning performance level coming out of the Cowboys’ Week 7 bye. No player scored more total or average points starting in Week 8 than Lamb, who averaged 23.4 points per game down the stretch.
Lamb returns to a Dallas offense with immense passing volume and high-level quarterback play. While he may not surpass the 300-point mark again next season, there’s little reason to believe his target share, target volume, or production will fall off.
1.4 Justin Jefferson, WR, Vikings
2023’s consensus WR1 and one of the most drafted players at No. 1 overall had an up-and-down season. Through the season's first month, Jefferson was the highest-scoring fantasy wide receiver and only trailed McCaffrey in total points. Then a hamstring injury in Week 5 sidelined him until Week 14. By that time, starting quarterback Kirk Cousins was out for the season with a torn Achilles. Jefferson had some success during the fantasy playoffs, but he certainly didn’t return his high draft value.
Why is Jefferson WR3? Well, who’s his quarterback going to be? Cousins’ contract is expiring and he’ll be coming off a major injury as a 36-year-old heading into 2024. Until we know who QB1 is in Minnesota, it’s hard to take Jefferson over Hill and Lamb.
1.5 Kyren Williams, RB, Rams
Talk about bursting onto the scene, the seldom-used running back in 2022 emerged as the Rams’ starting rusher in 2023 and dominated. In the 12 games he played, he scored 16 or more fantasy points in 75% of them. His 19.92 fantasy points per game average was bested by only McCaffrey and Hill.
Rams’ starting running backs have been incredibly fruitful for fantasy managers in the Sean McVay era. There’s no reason to believe Williams won’t be Los Angeles’ starter in 2024 or that he’ll fall off a production cliff. I’m not banking on 1.25 touchdowns per game again next season, but a score per game is a reasonable projection.
1.6 Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Bengals
It was a disappointing season for Ja’Marr Chase’s fantasy managers—whether it was the slow start to the season or the Joe Burrow season-ending injury that capped his upside. But despite all that, Chase still managed to finish as a WR1 and there’s a lot of hope for a monster 2024 season.
In games that Burrow started and finished in 2023, Chase averaged 16.2 fantasy points per game. That would’ve ranked as the WR5 if he played the full season. There’s a strong chance that Tee Higgins won’t return to Cincinnati in 2024, which should only increase Chase’s target share. He comes in as WR4 here, but he’s got a real shot at being the overall WR1 next season.
1.7 Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Lions
While there was a ton of pyro and ballyhoo around Bijan Robinson entering the NFL, Jahmyr Gibbs was the most productive rookie running back (as I predicted). Gibbs finished as the RB7 in average fantasy points per game (14.8) and didn’t get rolling until Week 7. From that point forward, he was only outscoKirby Lee-USA TODAY Sportsred by McCaffrey in total points and was RB3 in average points per game.
While Gibbs could be in the top-five conversation, I fear an offensive system change in Detroit. Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is in high demand for a head coaching job and I expect him to take one this offseason. Who will be calling the offense next year? Will David Montgomery’s split remain the same? Those questions keep Gibbs in the bottom half of Round 1.
1.8 Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Lions
We, as a fantasy football community, cannot continue to let Amon-Ra St. Brown slide out of the first round any longer. St. Brown was the WR9 in average fantasy points per game in 2022 and followed that up by being WR4 this season. St. Brown’s consistency was quite remarkable. He had just one game all season with fewer than 11.2 fantasy points.
Like Gibbs, I have some small concerns about what the Lions’ offense will look like next season, which made me lean toward Chase over St. Brown for now. However, St. Brown’s high floor is a real asset for fantasy managers.
1.9 Breece Hall, RB, Jets
Just looking at raw points, Breece Hall had a monster season. He finished as the RB6 in total points but was the RB10 in average points per game. After a boom-or-bust opening month, Hall turned it on with a 26.9-point performance in Week 5. From then on, Hall averaged 16.4 fantasy points per game, ranking top five among all running backs.
While the Jets’ offense should be better with a returning Aaron Rodgers next year, I do worry that a lot of the receiving production is going to go away. Hall averaged 7.2 receptions per game over his final six contests, buoyed by plenty of late-game dump-offs from bad quarterbacks. That may not be there at the same volume in 2024. However, he’ll be further removed from his ACL repair and could be an absolute menace on the ground for the Jets next season.
1.10 A.J. Brown, WR, Eagles
It was a tale of two seasons for A.J. Brown. Before Philadelphia’s Week 10 bye, Brown was the WR2 in both total and average fantasy points per game. He had only two games with fewer than 15 fantasy points in that stretch. Post-bye, he averaged 9.6 fantasy points per game with only one game above 12.2 fantasy points. His dip in production coincided with the Eagles being out of sync late in the season. Will the offense look better next season?
Brown finished as the WR5 in total points in 2022 and 2023. That’s a pretty good floor to have and there is still room to finish higher than that. I’m not letting Brown get out of the first round.
1.11 De’Von Achane, RB, Dolphins
De’Von Achane is going to be a fascinating ADP study throughout the summer. He scored 21 or more fantasy points in 40% of his games played as a rookie, finishing as a top-five running back in average fantasy points per game. However, there are plenty of question marks fantasy managers need to be comfortable taking on. Is his injury risk worth it? Is he too boom-or-bust for a first-rounder? How much work will Raheem Mostert get after his career year?
The potential reward in 2024 is massive—he has a tremendous skill set inside an elite offense. His downside is considerable. I expect Achane to be over-drafted in a handful of leagues but he’d be in play for me starting in the back half of the first round.
1.12 Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints
While he’s the oldest running back in this fantasy football mock draft so far, Alvin Kamara was one of only six running backs to average more than 15 fantasy points per game in 2023. After returning from his three-game suspension to open the season, he had just three sub-12-point performances. Year after year, he continues to perform at a high level with a heavy workload.
Offensive changes are likely coming in New Orleans, but they should only help Kamara. We also now know Jamaal Williams is no threat to Kamara’s workload. I will, for the second year in a row, draft Kamara ahead of his consensus ADP.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Round 2
2.1 Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
Previous Pick: Alvin Kamara
Bijan Robinson will be a popular first-round pick, but I still worry he won’t get as much usage as everyone is clamoring for. Arthur Smith’s job is reportedly safe for another year, which means we could see a split backfield with Tyler Allgeier yet again. Robinson’s late-season snap counts are encouraging and he did finish as a top-20 fantasy running back as a rookie.
2.2 Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
Previous Pick: De’Von Achane
Travis Etienne had a solid 2022 season in his first healthy NFL season, but 2023 was his true breakout year. The Jaguars rusher averaged 15.11 fantasy points per game, reaching double digits in 10 of his 16 games. I expect his role to be just as large for the Jaguars in 2024 as it was in 2023.
2.3 Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
Previous Pick: A.J. Brown
Last spring/summer was a tumultuous time for Jonathan Taylor. He didn’t get the contract he wanted, there were reports he was still hurt coming off ankle surgery, and there were denials from Taylor that he was hurt, and he eventually was put on PUP to start the season. He came back and had some flashes, but split time with surprising standout Zack Moss and then dealt with another injury late in the season.
Still, Taylor is a tremendous talent in an offense that should thrive with Anthony Richardson back next season. Plus, Moss is a pending free agent.
2.4 Nico Collins, WR, Texans
Previous Pick: Breece Hall
This is probably the first pick that really raises eyebrows, but hear me out. Nico Collins finished this season as a top-15 fantasy receiver, averaging 13.6 fantasy points per game—that jumps to 14.51 per game if you remove the contest in which he got injured after three plays. He had double-digit fantasy points in 10 of his 14 games and showed strong chemistry with rookie passer C.J. Stroud. I only expect that connection to grow in 2024.
2.5 Saquon Barkley, RB, Free Agent
Previous Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Despite dealing with a multi-week injury early and quite frankly terrible quarterback play all season, Barkley still managed to finish as an RB1 in average fantasy points per game. His future is murky and he may not be back in New York in 2024. That could be a boon to his fantasy value, but you never know. I’m comfortable taking him in Round 2.
2.6 Puka Nacua, WR, Rams
Previous Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs
What a remarkable rookie season for the fifth-round pick. Puka Nacua emerged as a league-winner, averaging 14.62 fantasy points per game. Maybe just as importantly for 2024, quarterback Matthew Stafford looked healthy. The Rams’ offense is always humming with McVay in charge, and it appears Nacua has supplanted Cooper Kupp as Stafford’s go-to target.
2.7 Rachaad White, RB, Buccaneers
Previous Pick: Ja’Marr Chase
With Leonard Fournette out of the picture, Rachaad White emerged as a high-end fantasy running back. White finished as the RB5 in total points and RB9 in average fantasy points per game. Although he’s a pending free agent, it’s looking more and more likely Baker Mayfield will be back in Tampa next season, throwing and handing off to White just as much as he did in 2023.
2.8 Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills
Previous Pick: Kyren Williams
I’m not sure what to make of Stefon Diggs’ 2023 season. He finished outside the top 10 wide receivers in both total points and average fantasy points per game, mostly because of a poor second half. Through Week 9, Diggs was the WR3 in total points and WR4 in average points. Then, he had just one other double-digit performance the rest of the way.
Despite the rough finish, I’m still willing to bet on the talent and volume in the second round.
2.9 Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
Previous Pick: Justin Jefferson
Keenan Allen is suffering from being out of sight, out of mind after missing the final month of the regular season, but he had quite the fantasy season. Only Hill and Lamb scored more fantasy points per game than Allen’s 17.3. His age (turns 32 in April) and injury history (missed 11 games over the last two seasons) hurt his value, but he is attached to a quality quarterback in Justin Herbert and presumably will be better coached in 2024.
2.10 Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers
Previous Pick: CeeDee Lamb
For the second time in three years, Deebo Samuel finished as a top-seven fantasy wide receiver. After an up-and-down start to the 2023 season, Samuel was a monster following the 49ers’ Week 9 bye—only Lamb scored more points from Weeks 10-17. With Brock Purdy fully entrenched as the 49ers’ long-term starter, Samuel continues to be a fantasy WR1.
2.11 Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
Previous Pick: Tyreek Hill
This is a pick that can only be made with the information to come this offseason as he rehabs from his knee injury, but Nick Chubb could be a potential steal outside the top 20 picks. After finishing as the RB10 in average fantasy points per game in 2021, Chubb jumped up to RB6 in 2022. He’s a true RB1 when healthy on a run-heavy offense. Don’t forget about him on draft day.
2.12 D.J. Moore, WR, Bears
Previous Pick: Christian McCaffrey
D.J. Moore’s first year in Chicago was successful. He finished as the WR7 in total points and WR10 in average points per game. Most importantly, he showed plenty of chemistry with Justin Fields. We’ll see if it’s Fields or Caleb Williams throwing Moore the ball in 2024, but either way, he will be a fantasy WR1. There is one note of caution, however. If the Bears draft Marvin Harrison Jr., the rookie may eat into Moore’s target share and slide him down fantasy draft boards a bit.
Just Missed: Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk, James Cook, Raheem Mostert, Joe Mixon
