Colts' 2024 Make Or Break Player: Alec Pierce

The 2024 NFL campaign will be a now-or-never one for Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Alec Pierce. After two consecutive seasons of modest production, the No. 53 overall selection in the 2022 NFL Draft will be tasked with producing while facing more competition for targets and playing time than ever before.

Pierce was drafted in 2022 to support Michael Pittman Jr. as the opposite boundary starter immediately. He played 63% of all Colts offensive snaps as a rookie, totaling 41 receptions for 593 receiving yards and two receiving touchdowns. The former Cincinnati standout was expected to take a sizable step forward as a sophomore, though that projection didn't necessarily come to fruition.

General manager Chris Ballard drafted Josh Downs with the 79th selection in the 2023 NFL Draft. Downs was added to replace the departing Parris Campbell in the slot. Though not necessarily competing for the same role as Pierce, Downs finished his rookie season second on the Colts in receiving with 68 catches for 771 yards and two touchdowns.

Pierce's final stat line was downgraded to 32 receptions for 514 yards and two touchdowns despite being the most-snapped receiver on the team (1,090 snaps, 94.95% snap-share). Pierce didn’t record his career's first 100-yard receiving game until Week 14 of his sophomore campaign.

And now he'll face even more competition in 2024.

Not satisfied with Pierce's production, Ballard drafted former Texas Longhorns wideout Adonai Mitchell with the No. 52 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. The dazzling Mitchell, who ran a 4.34-second 40-yard dash and leaped a 136-inch broad jump at the NFL Combine, will compete for Pierce's job.

Despite selecting Pierce with his first pick in 2022, Ballard has now drafted receivers with top-80 selections in successive drafts. Pittman Jr. also is going nowhere after signing a three-year, $71.5 million contract extension earlier this offseason. These follow-up investments at receiver reflect Pierce more than anything else.

There is reason for optimism that Pierce can enjoy a career-best campaign in 2024. Glass-half-full analysts can claim Pierce's lack of high-end production in 2023 was due to poor quarterback play and a limiting game plan that didn't consistently throw the ball deep. No. 4 overall pick Anthony Richardson missed most of the campaign after suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 5.

According to Pro Football Focus ' charting, primary starter Gardner Minshew finished 26th among 38 qualifying quarterbacks (min. 200 passing attempts) with an average depth of target (ADOT) of 7.8. Albeit via a small sample size, Richardson had a slightly higher ADOT of 8.0. There's reason to hope a healthy, more experienced Richardson will be even more aggressive in 2024, potentially leading to more deep-ball opportunities for Pierce.

There have been fleeting moments of brilliance for Pierce through two completed seasons, but the Colts are likely running out of patience. The onus falls on Pierce to increase his production while keeping Mitchell at bay throughout training camp and the preseason.