New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick may not return to Foxboro for a 25th season. Belichick's potential departure was a topic of discussion throughout his end-of-year meeting with the media on Monday, a scrum that invited inundated speculation over his uncertain future. If Belichick is coaching another team in 2024, the Washington Commanders stick out as the best overall fit.
The Patriots just concluded a 4-13 campaign, the worst of the Belichick era. Owner Robert Kraft has grown impatient with a legendary coach who now sports a 29-38 record post-Tom Brady. The Patriots aren't expected to outright fire Belichick, although a mutual parting of ways could offer an alternative solution. Instead, Kraft would likely much rather trade Belichick in exchange for draft capital. Knowing that Belichick wouldn't be unemployed for long, the Patriots must maximize the compensation as opposed to letting him join a competitor for nothing.
New Commanders owner Josh Harris is obsessed with building a winner. Harris has put together an aggressive and unique coaching search firm that includes former Golden State Warriors general manager Bob Myers and NBA legend Magic Johnson, among others. Harris will lean on trustworthy minds from the world of basketball, a walk of life he currently knows more about than his new football-related venture.
It's easy to foresee Belichick's winning resume not only aligning itself with Harris' goals but also identifying itself with Myers' and Johnson's history of winning championships. Harris wants to make a splash that immediately brings competitive football to the DMV. Acquiring Belichick would signal his aggressive intentions to a fanbase that’s tired of losing.
There's also the manner of what Belichick would be inheriting. Yes, there are various holes to plug across the Commanders' 4-13 roster, but owning the No. 2 overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft will entice all potential candidates. Whether USC's Caleb Williams or North Carolina's Drake Maye are quarterbacking the Commanders next season, it sets the franchise up for a potential quick turnaround.
If Belichick is really leaving the Patriots, finding stability at the quarterback position will be key to determining his next destination. Things fell apart when Brady left, and Belichick made the wrong decision when selecting Mac Jones as his successor. There's no such thing as a sure thing in the NFL draft, but Williams and Maye are elite quarterback prospects, some of the best we've seen in recent drafts. Jones, who was the fifth quarterback selected in his class, isn’t in the same bucket. Belichick would reserve the freedom to make a much sounder quarterback decision in Washington, and as he knows, that's often the success differentiator.
A defensive-minded head coach, Belichick would also be inheriting the nucleus of a good defense. Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen are difference makers up front, and the secondary has ascending building blocks such as Emmanuel Forbes and Quan Martin. EDGE rushers are desperately needed, but Belichick has made a habit of finding quality pass rushers in unknown places.
Some of those defensive holes could be plugged through free agency, where the Commanders are scheduled to possess a league-leading $85 million in cap space, according to Spotrac. Getting a young franchise quarterback on his rookie contract will allow Washington to spend that money borderline ruthlessly. Belichick could build around Williams or Maye with immediate contributors.
The Belichick and Patriots split feels inevitable. Both sides could be working through finding the right agreement. Perhaps the Harris-led Commanders are already lurking in the shadows. Based on the circumstances surrounding the available openings, Belichick should identify Washington as his most desired destination.
