Fantasy football season is finally back and it's time to start thinking about your lineup construction for the first week of the 2024 season. We at The Draft Network are here to help by not only ranking the top fantasy football players but also by providing point projections that can help you set your season-long and DFS lineups.
We'll get into how these projections are derived below, but it's important to remember this is just a (hopefully) helpful tool for you. It's your fantasy football team and you have the final say over your roster. Do you have a gut feeling? Go with it. Do you think I'm way off on a player you love or hate? That's perfectly fine. It's incredibly tough to predict the future and in the end, we're all just guessing—even if it's an educated guess. Be sure to check out our Fantasy Football page for updated info all season long.
These projections are based on several factors, including a player's overall base per-game projection adjusted to account for positional home/road splits, the defense they're facing, that defense's home/road splits, and other factors like projected weather, injuries, etc. Base projections are calculated based on the offenses NFL teams run, the volume of plays within those offenses, target/rushing shares, etc. depending on what's most relevant for each position. Volume is a huge component of fantasy success—I’d argue it is nearly as important as a player’s talent—so a player’s potential workload is a major factor to consider. The points listed below are also intended to be 50th-percentile projections, not the potential floor or ceiling for each player.
These projections reflect the order in which I would start players in a half-PPR league with typical scoring, no bonuses, and standard lineup construction. If you have any specific questions or want to know more about what I think of certain players, hit me up on Twitter (@JaimeEisner) or Instagram (@JaimeEisner_). I’d be happy to chat with you!
Please Note: For Week 1, additional positions (WR, TE) will be available before the start of Week 1. During the season, all projections will be published on the same day (either Tuesday or Wednesday).
Fantasy Football Week 1 RB Projections
| Rank | Player | Team | Opponent | Projection |
|---|
| 1 | Christian McCaffrey | 49ers | vs. NYJ | 23.50 points |
| 2 | Alvin Kamara | Saints | vs. CAR | 16.55 points |
| 3 | De'Von Achane | Dolphins | vs. JAX | 15.94 points |
| 4 | Kenneth Walker III | Seahawks | vs. DEN | 15.70 points |
| 5 | Jonathan Taylor | Colts | vs. HOU | 15.55 points |
| 6 | Rachaad White | Buccaneers | vs. WSH | 15.06 points |
| 7 | D'Andre Swift | Bears | vs. TEN | 14.74 points |
| 8 | Kyren Williams | Rams | @ DET | 14.60 points |
| 9 | Bijan Robinson | Falcons | vs. PIT | 13.90 points |
| 10 | Saquon Barkley | Eagles | vs. GB (N) | 13.34 points |
| 11 | James Cook | Bills | vs. ARI | 13.28 points |
| 12 | Raheem Mostert | Dolphins | vs. JAX | 13.07 points |
| 13 | Jahmyr Gibbs | Lions | vs. LAR | 13.01 points |
| 14 | J.K. Dobbins | Chargers | vs. LV | 12.75 points |
| 15 | Javonte Williams | Broncos | @ SEA | 12.40 points |
| 16 | Derrick Henry | Ravens | @ KC | 12.30 points |
| 17 | Josh Jacobs | Packers | vs. PHI (N) | 12.29 points |
| 18 | James Conner | Cardinals | @ BUF | 11.91 points |
| 19 | Travis Etienne | Jagaurs | @ MIA | 11.88 points |
| 20 | Aaron Jones | Vikings | @ NYG | 11.77 points |
| 21 | Breece Hall | Jets | @ SF | 11.75 points |
| 22 | Devin Singletary | Giants | vs. MIN | 11.73 points |
| 23 | Isiah Pacheco | Chiefs | vs. BAL | 11.51 points |
| 24 | Jerome Ford | Browns | vs. DAL | 11.44 points |
| 25 | Joe Mixon | Texans | @ IND | 11.42 points |
| 26 | David Montgomery | Lions | vs. LAR | 11.39 points |
| 27 | Zamir White | Raiders | @ LAC | 10.70 points |
| 28 | Gus Edwards | Chargers | vs. LV | 10.69 points |
| 29 | Najee Harris | Steelers | @ ATL | 10.50 points |
| 30 | Zack Moss | Bengals | vs. NE | 10.18 points |
| 31 | Rhamondre Stevenson | Patriots | @ CIN | 10.00 points |
| 32 | Jaylen Warren | Steelers | @ ATL | 9.80 points |
| 33 | Tony Pollard | Titans | @ CHI | 9.75 points |
| 34 | Brian Robinson Jr. | Commanders | @ TB | 9.33 points |
| 35 | Tyjae Spears | Titans | @ CHI | 9.12 points |
| 36 | Austin Ekeler | Commanders | @ TB | 9.10 points |
| 37 | Chuba Hubbard | Panthers | @ NO | 8.66 points |
| 38 | Ezekiel Elliott | Cowboys | @ CLE | 8.55 points |
| 39 | Khalil Herbert | Bears | vs. TEN | 7.84 points |
| 40 | D'Onta Foreman | Browns | vs. DAL | 7.05 points |
| 41 | Zach Charbonnet | Seahawks | vs. DEN | 6.93 points |
| 42 | Trey Benson | Cardinals | @ BUF | 6.76 points |
| 43 | Alexander Mattison | Raiders | @ LAC | 6.50 points |
| 44 | Ty Chandler | Vikings | @ NYG | 6.44 points |
| 45 | Antonio Gibson | Patriots | @ CIN | 6.36 points |
| 46 | Justice Hill | Ravens | @ KC | 6.30 points |
| 47 | Tyler Allgeier | Falcons | vs. PIT | 6.18 points |
| 48 | Blake Corum | Rams | @ DET | 6.14 points |
| 49 | Samaje Perine | Chiefs | vs. BAL | 5.40 points |
| 50 | Rico Dowdle | Cowboys | @ CLE | 5.31 points |
| 51 | Chase Brown | Bengals | vs. NE | 4.88 points |
| 52 | Bucky Irving | Buccaneers | vs. WSH | 3.42 points |
RB Scoring: Rushing Yards (0.10 points per yard); Rushing TDs (6 points); Receptions (0.5 points); Receiving Yards (0.10 points per yard); Receiving TDs (6 points); Fumbles Lost (-2 points)
